The End of Everything
End of Humanity - 10,000 yearsModern humans originated in Africa about 200,000 years ago. Since then, we've gone on to inhabit every single corner of the globe. But this is just temporary. The vast majority of every species that has ever lived on Earth is now extinct. To think that humans can avoid the fate of every other creature is arrogant. Like all life on Earth, our time is limited. How long will we last?
There are many natural and man made disasters that could wipe us out. From an asteroid strike to worldwide pandemic; global warming to a nearby supernova detonation - there are many ways we could go. Perhaps we'll wrap it up in a mass extinction event, such as the one that killed the dinosaurs 65 million years ago, or "the Great Dying", 251 million years ago that killed 70% of land species and 96% of all marine species.
Perhaps another species (intelligent cockroaches, rats) will evolve, and out compete with us in our niche. Or maybe we'll engineer our robotic replacements.
But a species can last tens or even hundreds of millions of years. So how can we predict when our number will be up?
There's no way to know, but there's a calculation that can help. It's called the Doomsday Argument, developed in 1983 by astrophysicist Brandon Carter. According to Carter, if you assume that half of the humans who will ever live have already been born, you get approximately 60 billion people. If you assume that another 60 billion are yet to be born, our high population levels only give us another 9,000 years or so. Or more precisely, there's a 95% chance that humanity will have ended by the year 11,000.
There are other calculations, but they give similar amounts, ranging from a few thousand to a few million years.
There are many natural and man made disasters that could wipe us out. From an asteroid strike to worldwide pandemic; global warming to a nearby supernova detonation - there are many ways we could go. Perhaps we'll wrap it up in a mass extinction event, such as the one that killed the dinosaurs 65 million years ago, or "the Great Dying", 251 million years ago that killed 70% of land species and 96% of all marine species.
Perhaps another species (intelligent cockroaches, rats) will evolve, and out compete with us in our niche. Or maybe we'll engineer our robotic replacements.
But a species can last tens or even hundreds of millions of years. So how can we predict when our number will be up?
There's no way to know, but there's a calculation that can help. It's called the Doomsday Argument, developed in 1983 by astrophysicist Brandon Carter. According to Carter, if you assume that half of the humans who will ever live have already been born, you get approximately 60 billion people. If you assume that another 60 billion are yet to be born, our high population levels only give us another 9,000 years or so. Or more precisely, there's a 95% chance that humanity will have ended by the year 11,000.
There are other calculations, but they give similar amounts, ranging from a few thousand to a few million years.
for more details clich on above link:http://www.universetoday.com/2007/07/25/the-end-of-everything/
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